Pregaming and "Not Mentioning" the Playoff Push: Avs vs Oilers

To say that the Avs should win this game is an understatement. The Oilers are still missing Stoll, Moreau, Reasoner, Hemsky, Hejda, Gilbert, Roy, and Tjarnqvist. Steve Staios is out for the remainder of the season with a knee injury that's probably needed repair since it first happened in November. The only non-rookies on the blueline are Jason Smith and (technically) Matt Greene. It's barely even worth saying that this "winless streak" has happened for a reason. It's not bad luck. It's not something they're going to shake off and move on from. The Oilers aren't good enough, especially on defense. With scoring like the Avs have, of course they should win this game. It would be embarrassing if they didn't.

Even more than they should win this game, they have to win this game. It's almost stupid to look at the Oilers as a legitimate threat to spoil this for the Avs, but I've watched the Bruins struggle against Philadelphia enough to not dismiss anyone. Those games were the most soul-crushing, as they all but killed my belief in the B's. The Avs have to be able to win "easy" games like this, because if they don't, how are we supposed to believe that they can win any of their remaining games against legitimate teams? Or make the playoffs?

The Avs can't falter. They have ten games left. Calgary has nine. Looking at these games, there are three things the Avs have to do to make the playoffs:

1. Beat bad teams (Edmonton and Phoenix).
2. Fare at least as well as the Flames against good teams (Vancouver, Minnesota, Nashville).
   
3. Get enough points in their two head-to-head games against the Flames ("enough" depends on the other results).

One should be a given. If either team loses games they should win, it's going to put them in a tough position. The Avs, for instance, have one more easy game than the Flames- they play the Oilers twice and Phoenix once, while Calgary plays the Oilers and Chicago once each. If all else is equal and they win all of their easy games, the Avs can make up the remaining four points by sweeping the head-to-head games. If they lose even one of the easy games, they'll be in a tough position. Likewise, if they Flames lose one of those games (a little help here, Oilers?) then the Avs can overtake them with a sweep.

This is all going on the condition that the other games yield equal results, which most likely won't happen. The Avs play Vancouver three times, Minnesota, and Nashville. The Flames play Vancouver, Minnesota twice, Nashville, and San Jose. These are pretty even schedules, though Colorado has fared better against their opponents (8-5-2) than Calgary has (5-9-3). In fairness, Calgary has had the most success (3-1-2) against Minnesota, who they play twice, and the Avs haven't exactly dominated Vancouver, outscoring them 15-12 and posting a 3-2 record in five games. All in all, I'm not too concerned with the past, because it doesn't really matter if the Avs beat Nashville in November if they can't beat them now. They have an equal number of games against good teams, and as far as I'm concerned an equal opportunity to get points. The outcome of these games might be the most important factor of the three. Sure, the head-to-head games will affect the outcome, but they'll be meaningless if one team falls off a cliff and the other excels. There are four points that can change hands there, while any number of things can come of the games remaining against other teams.

So what's going to happen? I have no idea. None. I've looked everywhere and I can't figure out, logically, what should happen. I've looked at Avs stats, Flames stats, stats of all the teams they have to play, stats of the Avs and Flames vs these teams, stats of the Avs vs [team] vs the Flames vs [team]...still nothing. Honestly, it's been torturing me. The only edge I can find is that the Avs are playing well, have a game in hand, have a better record this season against these opponents, and are captained by a god. The Flames, though, are still six points up, starting Kipper, and don't have my luck going against them. I still get the sinking feeling that, now that I've written all this after swearing not to mention anything, and now that everyone's all excited, the Avs are going to lose to Phoenix or the Oilers, the Flames will go on a winning streak, and this will all be for nothing. But I have a little more faith in them than that. They're not the goddamn Bruins. They can reinforce that by beating the Oilers tonight.