Pregaming: Avs at B's

This game makes me nervous, and not just because I'm afraid I'll pass out when I see Joe Sakic in person. If the Bruins win this game, they'll move into 10th place in the East- 2 points behind Carolina, with two games in hand. If the lose, they idle at 12th, suddenly behind both Toronto and the Rangers with no games in hand. They have a good shot at catching Montreal and Carolina, but they absolutely have to keep ahead of the Leafs and Rangers. That's why this game makes me nervous- and that's why yesterday I looked up every possible statistic related to the game instead of, say, doing my homework, or even going to the last half of the school day.

Through my exhaustive research (which made me look "wicked burned out" according to a few people), I found some interesting things that could come into play tonight. Firstly, there's a fair amount of evidence to show that the Bruins have played much better over the past two games than they did through their 4-game winning streak. I see the Bruins' recent play in three sections- the four game winning streak, then the three game losing streak, and finally the past two games (another winning streak, you could say). The goals during these three stretches go:
Goals for-Goals against
Winning Streak1: 21-8 (AVG 5.3-2.0 per game)
Losing Streak: 7-14 (AVG 2.3-4.7 per game)
Winning Streak2: 7-2 (AVG 3.5-1.0 per game)
The numbers make sense. If there's any disparity between the two winning streaks, it's style of play. It looks like the Bruins focused more on offense during the first, and defense during the second. But looking at shots seems to prove this wrong.
Shots for/Shots against
Winning Streak1: 92-128 (AVG 23-32 per game)
Losing Streak: 88-127 (AVG 29-42 per game)
Winning Streak2: 66-59 (AVG 33-30 per game)
They were outshot during their first winning streak in all games but Buffalo. So if they were awful defensively, not generating more shots than the other team, and bad on the powerplay (11.8%), how in god's name did they win? The answer lies somewhere in between opportunistic scoring and Tim Thomas' .945 SV%. It's easy to say that it's entirely Thomas' doing, especially when you see that the losing streak started in a game that he was pulled from, but it can't be entirely. Even with that game, he posted a .938 SV% during the losing streak. The real problem was that the Bruins got even worse defensively and stopped being able to pull goals out of thin air. When they played the Flyers during the winning streak, they scored 6 goals on 18 shots for the win, despite letting up 33 shots against. When they played them during the losing streak, they scored 3 goals on 37 shots and let up 55 against for the OT loss. The Bruins have corrected both problems. They may not be scoring 5 goals a game, but they're also not letting up a mind-boggling amount of shots and expecting Tim Thomas to hold the fort. That's what real teams do. How exciting!
E had a line about Thomas in her last post that absolutely killed me.

Also, even though he murderized us tonight, I kind of like Thomas for his sheer stubborn refusal to look even the least bit athletic. It’s like the Bruins decided to put a big stuffed panda bear in goal.

So true, but I guess that's just another reason why I love the guy.

Even though the Bruins are getting good offense, great goaltending, and acceptable defense, and they're hungrier for the points, and they're on home ice, there's still one thing that could hurt them: the Avs powerplay. If I were looking strictly at the numbers, I'd say that the Bruins have an advantage in the special teams department. While their mediocre penalty kill might struggle with the Avs 4th-ranked powerplay, they have a good powerplay themselves that should take complete advantage of the Avs useless killing squad, which is even worse without Karlis Skrastins. But, having watched the Avs all year, I'm not looking strictly at the numbers. Their powerplay has bailed them out of a lot of games this year and always seems to be able to get them a goal when they most need it. This doesn't bode well for the Bruins, who, led by their fearless captain Zdeno Chara, take the dumbest penalties at the worst times. If they take too many penalties this game, they might end up losing to a team that they should and need to beat. That being said, the Avs penalty kill has bad timing to the point that it almost cancels out the good timing of their powerplay. So pretty much everything is saying that the Bruins are going to win.

Prediction: Avs. I'm always wrong. Besides, this makes it a win-win situation. If the Bruins win, they get the points they need and will move that much closer to the playoffs. If the Avs win, I'm right for once and will ignore the sinking feeling in my stomach that I get when I look at the Eastern Conference standings. Yay insurance!