Tim Thomas

I was lucky enough to go to the Bruins/Cancucks game in Vancouver a few weeks ago. The win was nice, but it was a typical 1-0 game in that not much actually happened. Even Milan Lucic couldn't start something, though not for lack of effort (damn Bieksa). Tim Thomas was legitimately terrifying for the whole game, making me think that maybe people were right about his value as a goaltender. Looking back, though, the only thing in the entire game that made me stand up and cheer was his amazing save in the third period, and this is completely ignoring the fact that it was his second shutout in two nights. If he had let in a single goal in either game the Bruins may not have won.
It's nerve-wracking to watch him sometimes, but not only is he the biggest reason the Bruins have won any games in the past few years, he's also very often the only interesting thing on the ice. We love Tim Thomas, and he is an All-Star. Vote Timmy!

2008-2009 Predicted Standings

Eastern Conference

1. Montreal
   
2. Washington
   
3. NY Rangers
   
4. Pittsburgh
   
5. Buffalo
   
6. Tampa Bay
   
7. Boston
   
8. Philadelphia
   
9. Ottawa
   
10. New Jersey
    
11. Carolina
    
12. Florida
    
13. NY Islanders
    
14. Atlanta
15. Toronto
    

Western Conference

1. Detroit
   
2. San Jose
   
3. Calgary
   
4. Anaheim
   
5. Dallas
   
6. Colorado
   
7. Chicago
   
8. Edmonton
9. Columbus
   
10. Minnesota
    
11. Phoenix
    
12. St. Louis
    
13. Nashville
    
14. Vancouver
    
15. Los Angeles
    

I won't go into too much detail about my methodology (highly scientific, much too complicated), but I will explain a few things.

• I've been waiting a while for New Jersey's success to disintegrate, and clearly I'm pegging this as the year. In all likelihoods they'll sneak into the playoffs yet again, losing in the first round to a far, far superior team, but what little glimmer of hope I have that the Devils will fail is all I need.
• Maybe it's because I've only ever predicted the playoffs, where goaltending is huge, but starting goalies were a pretty big factor in these picks. Ottawa and Columbus's skaters, for instance, are of vastly different quality, but vastly different qualities of goaltenders puts them both at 9th.
  
• The possibility of trades was never considered with any team. Unless they're done early in the season, I don't believe they dramatically alter a team's position in the standings.
• Personal biases were considered with pretty much every team. For instance, I claim goaltending is a huge factor, yet the only reason I put the Canucks as high as 14th is that the Kings are too disasterous to be anything but dead last. This is because I live in Vancouver.

Here's hoping the Bruins and Avs bump themselves up, and that someone bumps off both first place teams.

Shaughnessy's Remarks Are Sad

I usually read mainstream sports articles only for recaps, quotes from players, or other bits of information I need. Especially with the writers we have covering the Red Sox in Boston, anything outside of that feels like a gossip column- sensationalist, idiotic, unimportant and self-important fluff. Ninety percent of the time, it's not even worth getting upset about.

Then there's the other ten percent. His name is Dan Shaughnessy.

Those air sickness bags come in handy sometimes. Flying coast to coast, you cram into your coach seat (like John Glenn in Mercury 1), open the paper to read Manny Ramírez's latest remarks, and you need the barf bag before you're over Kansas.

Quick show of hands here. Which person do you feel worse for- Shaughnessy for being stuck in a coach seat (from the sound of it, literally), or his seatmate for being stuck next to Shaughnessy? We can only hope that the poor guy had a soft spot for nauseas panderers, or at least that he had some way to entertain himself.

But this article ("Ramirez's remarks are sad") isn't about Dan Shaugnessy's numerous personal hardships, or about getting back at Manny for hating on the Boston sports media. It's about the fans, who should be enraged at the unbelievably pompous way Manny has taken them for granted.

We know what he thinks of you. He thinks all you Sox fans are losers who need to get a life. You just care too darn much. It doesn't matter how much love you showered on his head. You bothered him with all that caring.

It's a horrifically disrespectful, completely unwarranted, and almost painfully delusional thing to say. For Shaughnessy, that is, because Manny didn't actually say that. He said this.

"It's just a different atmosphere. The fans in Boston got your back no matter what, but I'm talking about the people who write all this bull because it means so much to them. If your happiness depends on Boston winning or losing, you have to get a life."

This was quoted in Shaughnessy's article. It was his "favorite part of the rant". If he expects to pull off that sort of blatant misrepresentation, it should be clear to Sox fans who really thinks they're losers. I know- it isn't worth getting upset over something so crassly manipulative, and even hypocritical to respond so cruelly. But in this article, Shaughnessy almost perfectly demonstrates what's so wrong about most sports writers. They don't care about sports.

A fan is someone who wants their team to win. They watch the game from their team's perspective. They root for offense when their team is batting and defense when their team is fielding. They always see calls in their team's favor, however irrationally. They love players that help their team win and hate players that help their team lose. Behind all of that there's a passion that causes them emotional trauma and ecstasy but can never be extinguished or satisfied.

A good sports writer is someone whose writing is relatable to fans, not because he also has to fly coach, or is also overweight, or also failed either history or math in high school (there was no Mercury 1), but because he is also driven by that same passion. I don't know what Shaughnessy's driven by (greed, fame, totally distorted self-image), but I don't really care. He said all he needs to when he tried to prove why Manny was actually talking about the fans.

He's right about some of this. There certainly are people in Boston whose happiness is connected to the Sox' fortunes. But it's not the "people who write this bull." Trust me when I tell you that Sox wins and losses have zero bearing on my happiness.

Real fans of the Red Sox shouldn't be reading someone who admits to not caring about the team (someone who would be happier with the Sox losing if it gave him something to write about), and maybe real fans don't. CHB is pretty universally hated by anyone even mildly familiar with Boston sports media, and it'd be nice to think that at least these people are intelligent enough to form their own opinions on issues surrounding the team. But there's no denying that a mass exists that lets itself and its passion for their team be poisoned by all the negativity we're being bombarded with.

Professional sports aren't all hugs and sunshine and unicorns, and I'm neither defending Manny nor claiming anything he says actually makes sense. But I've let it go. That's the result a lot of people want from this situation, and soon. Manny puts it well.

"Just let me be happy someplace else."

Yeah, he's still talking about it, but Shaughnessy isn't exactly convincing with his "give it up, Manny" routine. He's the one still reporting it, "reluctantly" or not. The Sox are in the playoffs. We just won our first game against the best team in the league. We get to look at Jacoby Ellsbury almost every day. And Manny is having a good time, too. Instead of letting us be happy, Shaughnessy fabricates insults to incite the rage of Boston fans, and while he may be the worst with this, it's not just him. I'm just tired of the hyenas that cover the team I love, and I wish there were more of those writers whose passion is their team and not their ego.

Avs Season Preview

Goaltenders: Peter Budaj, Andrew Raycroft

Defensemen: Adam Foote, J-M Liles, Scott Hannan, Ruslan Salei, Jordan Leopold, Brett Clark, Kyle Cumiskey, Daniel Tjarnqvist

Forwards: Joe Sakic, Ryan Smyth, Milan Hejduk, Paul Stastny, Wojtek Wolski, Marek Svatos, Tyler Arnason, Ian Laperriere, Ben Guite, Darcy Tucket, David Jones, TJ Hensick, Scott Parker, Cody McLeod, Cody McCormick


Before we get started on this, I have to admit that it takes effort to feel good about this season in Colorado. Lined up side-by-side with the Bruins, the Avs don't seem to be in very bad shape. Their goaltending situation isn't that much worse, their offense isn't that much thinner, and there's no one in their division that strikes immediate fear in my heart. It just seems worse because of the way last season went. Usually the Bruins are the ones with the potential they never live up to and the Avs are the powerhouse that deservingly has our faith. While the roles aren't reversed exactly, they have switched a bit. To overcome the holes in their lineups, both of them have to come together as a team and work for it. For once, that sounds more like the Bruins. It's funny what one season can do.
Anyway, here's how the Avs are looking going into 2008-2009.

Stopping Goals
There's reason to be nervous about the goaltending situation on the Avs. With Jose Theodore gone, they're relying entirely on Peter Budaj. He's shown in the past that he can thrive in a starter's role, but he's never had to do it for the entire season. If he hits a rough patch, Andrew Raycroft isn't exactly the rock they need to pick up the pieces. God knows Boodz can come through, but if he doesn't then the season is lost. Gulp.
The defense is another story. Wow. Can I just say wow and leave it at that? Where's the weak link? There's not a guy in our top six that would be out of place in a top pairing. Barring injury, the Avs defense can make up for a lot of weaknesses at both ends of the ice.
In last year's playoffs, the Avs were most (or only) effective when the forwards were very aggressive defensively. The defensemen can- and need to- play their minds out, but if the forwards slack off in their own zone, they'll be spending most of the game there.

Scoring Goals
I'm curious to see how the offense will shape up. It can actually end up looking pretty good if the right people have good years, such as Marek Svatos. If he plays like a top-sixer, they'll have two solid lines, one excellent checking line, and an energy line that can fill in the gaps (I'd like to see Jones and Hensick there). However, if any of the top six forwards are injured or go through serious slumps, there aren't really any good replacements for them. Considering who's on the top two lines, this makes me very nervous.
Like the forwards have to play well defensively, the defensemen have to play well offensively. There's no way the power play can be as terrible as it was last year, and while most of that will have to do with coaching, it will also hinge on players like J-M Liles, Jordan Leopold, and Ruslan Salei. The Avs should use their speed and smart defensemen to dominate teams on the transition. If your players alone can't put the other team on their heels, then your plays should.

That's really the key to the Avs this year- playing more cohesively. They have the heart players to spark the effort, but they need a coach that can focus it. It's also vital that Boodz comes up big, that no one on the top two lines is injured or slumping for an extended period of time, that the defense plays phenomenally in all three zones, and that special teams are at least good enough not to cost them games. If they do all that, they can be a pretty solid playoff team. There's a lot to be optimistic about, but there's even more that can go wrong, and for the first time in a while it seems more likely than not that it will.

Bruins Season Preview

Goalies: Tim Thomas, Manny Fernandez, Tuukka Rask

Defensemen: Zdeno Chara, Dennis Wideman, Andrew Ference, Andrew Alberts, Aaron Ward, Mark Stuart, Shane Hnidy, Matt Lashoff

Forwards: Patrice Bergeron, Marc Savard, Milan Lucic, Phil Kessel, Michael Ryder, Marco Sturm, PJ Axelsson, David Krejci, Chuck Kobasew, Peter Schaefer, Petteri Nokelainan, Shawn Thornton, Vladimir Sobotka, Jeremy Reich


The Bruins don't look bad.
They're no Red Wings, and we all know that just because they seem to pass on paper doesn't mean they won't fail miserably on the ice, but the B's are a few answered question marks away from being a solid team. Even if they stall at first, there are plenty of options for trading. Seeing as they've preferred to take their time in recent years bringing prospects up, I'll assume for now that this is going to be pretty close to the starting roster. Let's take a look.


Stopping Goals
The Bruins' biggest unknown going into the season is goaltending, and one that won't likely be solved immediately. Barring an injury or a total collapse, the B's will start the season with three goaltenders. Though he'll get more ice time and a much more serious look than last year, Tuukka Rask will still be limited for the first half and probably won't take over as the starter this season. My bet is that Tim Thomas once again wins his job, the Bruins trade Manny Fernandez, and at some point in the second half of the season they start splitting time evenly between Thomas and Rask. That being said, it will probably happen completely differently. For all I know the Bruins are starting Jeremy Reich in net.
Whatever happens with goaltending should be buffered by defense. The de on this team have gotten way too much credit in the past couple of seasons (probably because it seemed more plausible than giving the credit to Tim Thomas), but they might actually deserve it this year. Once Dennis Wideman stops making terrible mistakes, the Bruins will have a genuine top pairing, and though the thought of Aaron Ward and Mark Stuart together is terrifying, at least Stuart is bound to improve. The cherry on top is the return of Andrew Alberts, i.e. the return of a large, physical, surprisingly intelligent de man who clicks well with Andrew Ference. Fantastic.


Scoring Goals
On offense there's a good mix of experienced veterans who haven't quite slowed down yet (sorry, Muzz) and young talent that's coming into its own. Though it's never out of the question for Boston forwards to muddle around in mediocrity for the whole season, I think the team is poised to score some goals. Marc Savard, a playmaker who feeds off the energy of his linemates, should put up big numbers playing with the likes of Phil Kessel and Michael Ryder. If all three can keep their heart in the game, they'll kill. I can't believe that Patrice will be anything less than phenomenal, especially if he has Milan Lucic to watch out for him and his old linemate Sturm at his side. With all the attention on the top two lines (something Lucic will have to deal with better to be successful), David Krejci can have himself a strong year flying under the radar. They can end up mediocre, but with some effort and luck they can also be very good.
Charizard and Wideman will make the power play unit intimidating, which can hopefully translate into actually scoring power play goals this year. Besides those two, the defensemen aren't particularly dangerous offensively. Andrew Ference, for instance, is an excellent playmaker in all three zones, but lacks the shot to score from the blue line. The de will have to become more of a threat in order to open up the offensive zone for their forwards, who (as a whole) aren't big enough to thrive in tight checking.


Everything can go either way. They've got big defensemen, talented forwards, and three decent options in net. They're also the Bruins. But that's not such a bad thing anymore. The team is full of heart (Patrice, Milan, Thomas, etc.) and after last year's playoffs the whole team should have a jump in their step. Maybe one series is too much to glean hope from, but for the first time in a long time the Bruins came together and willed themselves some wins. I think the team finally knows what they have to do, and with Claude Julien coaching them, hopefully this year they can do it.

Go Pens?

Glory, gloryHallelujah.

A break was necessary after the Bruins dragged me mercilessly back into caring about them in a non-sarcastic way, then left me with the Avs, who responded by giving up on the series halfway through their first game against Detroit. But there's no way I could take off a Stanley Cup Finals in which neither team is from California or the Southeast Conference. Still, I didn't expect to care, and the Penguins have won me over. It's likely because I've developed definite man-crushes on Jordan Staal, who has played with intelligence, poise, and effort way beyond someone half a year older than me, and Ryan Malone, whose gritty, "I don't care if I fall down when no one's around me" style of play should be an inspiration to his team. The latter was also the subject of this series' "Tim McCarver Award for Inexplicableness in Broadcasting" (the actual recipient of which I forget) for the following statement:
Announcer: Look at Ryan Malone's face. He's sporting all sorts of colors. Red beard, red scabs, yellow nose, black helmet...

All that aside, before the series started, it looked like this to me: Detroit should and probably would win, but Pittsburgh could win. I imagined it ending up fairly even, with Detroit sticking to their system and Pittsburgh occasionally overwhelming it to score a goal. It just wasn't clear if the Penguins were really good enough to throw the Red Wings off their game. I suspected they weren't, so it came down to a matter of which was worse: believing in the Pens and being wrong, or not giving them a chance and being right. Pens in 7 is the retrospective prediction, which is unfortunate, because the Red Wings have managed to bring their dominance to the Finals.

Anyone who's watched Detroit this year knows there shouldn't be any competition for the Jack Adams. That team is a machine. The phrase "puck possession" is beaten like a dead horse, and it doesn't do their system justice. I get the feeling it's become one of those phrases that people parrot without understanding, like "leadership qualities" or "beating a dead horse". To some people (ie Crosbunnies) it likely comes off like some elaborate game of keepaway. It's so much more, and so freaking good, that I think their system can only be explained in Chuck Norris-like expressions.

The Red Wings know where you're going with the puck, and they will get it from you.
Because they clog up dangerous areas, attacking players have to choose between settling for perimeter scoring chances, and risking a turnover in a heavily-defended area. Eventually they have to choose the latter, with a small success rate. In addition to basic positioning, Detroit also finds advantages in their opponent's game. Against Pittsburgh, for instance, they favor low coverage (sometimes with all five players below the hashmarks), knowing that the Penguins rely heavily on their forwards.

The Red Wings will pass the puck back down the ice with dazzling crispness to places you didn't even know another Red Wing was.
Their impossibly smooth transitions are the most devastating part of their game. Here's where the term "puck possession" may mislead people (if it actually does), since Detroit prefers passing, which moves the puck much faster. Yes, their forwards will carry the puck if they have space and no better options, but they usually hold on just long enough for defenders to collapse on them, opening up a quick dish to a teammate. If they can pass immediately they will, since the faster they move the play up the ice, the more likely they are to catch the defense flat-footed. However, their willingness to carry the puck (in addition to skill and positioning) is one reason they rarely make very sloppy or forced passes.

Even if you get the puck from one Red Wing, another will get it back.
Close puck support enables those quick dishes, but even more importantly it recovers control after mistakes. They've managed to turn botched attempts at offense into creative-looking plays that almost seem deliberate. Whatever the intention is, the result is overwhelming. If one player loses the puck, his teammate is right there to make sure the drive doesn't die, which can spell trouble for a defender who's accustomed to dismantling an attack with one poke check (coughHalGillcough).

The Red Wings have many tricks, and they're not afraid to use every last one of them.
Players are encouraged to, within the system, use their strengths to create chances. If Datsyuk has space, he'll twirl around you. If Franzen doesn't, he'll go through you. If both of them are stopped, Holmstrom will continue to slash your goaltender long after the whistle has blown out of the possibility that the play is a zombie and will come back to life, or because he is an asshole. They utilize their best option on the ice, no matter what it is, which forces teams to defend them by reacting, not anticipating. There's no cheating when defending against the Red Wings. And even if you do gain control of the puck, the Red Wings know where you're going with it, and they will get it from you.

I hate to praise them so irrationally, but to watch a team as confident, enthusiastic, and freakishly talented as Pittsburgh be controlled and intimidated like they were in Detroit is frustrating. Game three played out a lot like I imagined the rest of the series would. Part of me is encouraged enough to think it will turn around now. Penguins players have been saying the right things in interviews (like get the puck back to the de more) and have adjusted their forecheck a bit to be more effective. The rational part of me, however, expects the Red Wings to own the next game, seeing as they only lost the last one because they didn't play like the Red Wings (ie the Brad Stuart turnover). You never know- maybe the Penguins were really just good enough to throw Detroit off their game, and I say it's better to believe that than to believe Ryan Malone's nose is yellow and scabs are red and helmet is black for nothing. Go Pens!

Second Round 2008

Detroit over Colorado (6 games)
The Avs play the kind of game Detroit can completely dominate. Their defense has played well and Theodore gives them a clear edge in goaltending, but their disorganized offense leaves them vulnerable to the Red Wings' transition game. Detroit picks apart and quickly turns back weak attacks, which have become the Avs trademark. It's not impossible for them to win the series, but they would have to play with more strength, creativity, intelligence, consistency, effort, and edge than they have all season. All the Red Wings have to do is score on Theodore, though Nashville proved last round that goaltending can go a long way. It's because of Theodore that the Avs have any shot at all, as even with massive improvements they will still likely be the lesser team. Detroit always seems to play to their potential; the series depends entirely on if the Avs do.

San Jose over Dallas (7 games)
It's all up to San Jose's forwards. Despite overall talent, the strength of both teams lies in their defense. If either team really breaks out offensively, it'll be devastating. Neither goaltender had a very good first round, but Turco was a bit worse. Because Nabokov is (more) likely to raise his game and the Sharks give up far fewer powerplays than the Ducks, Dallas' offense will struggle more in this round than the first. Therefore, if San Jose breaks out (which they can against Turco and with Boucher injured), they also win. It's not at all out of the question that Dallas will win (they're just full of surprises), but it's more likely that they'll crack first.

Montreal over Philadelphia (7 games)
While goaltending is the biggest key with two open teams like this, and Price will likely outduel Biron in most games, the series also depends on whether the Flyers can use their physicality to overwhelm the Habs. This will not only take away space from Montreal's forwards, but also put pressure on their sketchy de (and take pressure off of the Flyers'). If their effort is inconsistent or they end up in the box too much- two very possible outcomes- they won't win.
One note on the Habs- they beat Boston so badly in Game 7 for the exact reasons they should have beaten them that badly in the series. In addition to being genuinely outplayed in the first half of the game, their defense was incredibly shaky in their own zone and their forwards fairly inconsistent. But, like they have been all year, the Habs' weaknesses were cancelled out by their strengths. Their lethally opportunistic forwards seemed to capitalize on every mistake we made (mostly by Chara), while Price made sure that we couldn't do the same. By the third period the Bruins looked completely broken and hopeless. The Habs don't play flawless hockey- they can just play flawed hockey better than other teams. If they're really on their game, the Flyers' effort level is inconsequential. They'll win.

Pittsburgh over NY Rangers (6 games)
The Rangers' lineup looked like a recipe for a turnaround- if they got Lundqvist and the forwards playing as well as their incredibly solid defense, they'd be a force. But as soundly as they beat the Devils, they still haven't made the leap. Lundvist was good, and could give them the advantage in goaltending, but it seems that their offensive "breakout" was helped a lot by Brodeur. Additionally, their defense was less than solid against a very bad New Jersey offense. It's like they tried to morph into the Penguins, but they're not good enough to play like Pittsburgh does. They need to be firing on all three cylinders to compete with the Penguins' two. Even if they do, it still might not be enough. It would take elevated play from all skaters, robbery from Lundqvist, and at least a minor breakdown from the Penguins for New York to win this.


It's becoming customary for me to put these up after the first day, but I did have both of tonight's series done before the teams played (as is evident by the comments about Theodore). His strange game aside, the Avs-Red Wings game went as well as I could have hoped, especially given how Colorado played in the first period. They looked terrified. The effort was mostly there, but without confidence it was unfocused and they were just lost. Pierre McGuire insightfully pointed out (many, many times) that Detroit's speed was too much for the Avs, but that was really only the case with Datsyuk. It wasn't that the Red Wings were getting places faster- it was that they were already halfway there by the time the Avs realized where they were going. As they spent the first period simply reacting to the Red Wings, it's no wonder the Avs had trouble stopping them. Detroit's intelligence was too much for them. It was only after Liles' goal (wonderful play all-around) that they gained the confidence to control the puck in the offensive zone and aggressively step up on the Wings' attack. For the second half of the game, they stayed with Detroit, and if not for a partial relapse into weak puck support and a late recovery from Osgood, they could have come back to win. They need to play like that for the rest of the series (especially Tyler Arnason, who inexplicably decided not to suck) and they've got a shot.

Shout out to Medford: I don't hate the Bruins anymore. It's a miracle...but there's always next year.