Go Pens?

Glory, gloryHallelujah.

A break was necessary after the Bruins dragged me mercilessly back into caring about them in a non-sarcastic way, then left me with the Avs, who responded by giving up on the series halfway through their first game against Detroit. But there's no way I could take off a Stanley Cup Finals in which neither team is from California or the Southeast Conference. Still, I didn't expect to care, and the Penguins have won me over. It's likely because I've developed definite man-crushes on Jordan Staal, who has played with intelligence, poise, and effort way beyond someone half a year older than me, and Ryan Malone, whose gritty, "I don't care if I fall down when no one's around me" style of play should be an inspiration to his team. The latter was also the subject of this series' "Tim McCarver Award for Inexplicableness in Broadcasting" (the actual recipient of which I forget) for the following statement:
Announcer: Look at Ryan Malone's face. He's sporting all sorts of colors. Red beard, red scabs, yellow nose, black helmet...

All that aside, before the series started, it looked like this to me: Detroit should and probably would win, but Pittsburgh could win. I imagined it ending up fairly even, with Detroit sticking to their system and Pittsburgh occasionally overwhelming it to score a goal. It just wasn't clear if the Penguins were really good enough to throw the Red Wings off their game. I suspected they weren't, so it came down to a matter of which was worse: believing in the Pens and being wrong, or not giving them a chance and being right. Pens in 7 is the retrospective prediction, which is unfortunate, because the Red Wings have managed to bring their dominance to the Finals.

Anyone who's watched Detroit this year knows there shouldn't be any competition for the Jack Adams. That team is a machine. The phrase "puck possession" is beaten like a dead horse, and it doesn't do their system justice. I get the feeling it's become one of those phrases that people parrot without understanding, like "leadership qualities" or "beating a dead horse". To some people (ie Crosbunnies) it likely comes off like some elaborate game of keepaway. It's so much more, and so freaking good, that I think their system can only be explained in Chuck Norris-like expressions.

The Red Wings know where you're going with the puck, and they will get it from you.
Because they clog up dangerous areas, attacking players have to choose between settling for perimeter scoring chances, and risking a turnover in a heavily-defended area. Eventually they have to choose the latter, with a small success rate. In addition to basic positioning, Detroit also finds advantages in their opponent's game. Against Pittsburgh, for instance, they favor low coverage (sometimes with all five players below the hashmarks), knowing that the Penguins rely heavily on their forwards.

The Red Wings will pass the puck back down the ice with dazzling crispness to places you didn't even know another Red Wing was.
Their impossibly smooth transitions are the most devastating part of their game. Here's where the term "puck possession" may mislead people (if it actually does), since Detroit prefers passing, which moves the puck much faster. Yes, their forwards will carry the puck if they have space and no better options, but they usually hold on just long enough for defenders to collapse on them, opening up a quick dish to a teammate. If they can pass immediately they will, since the faster they move the play up the ice, the more likely they are to catch the defense flat-footed. However, their willingness to carry the puck (in addition to skill and positioning) is one reason they rarely make very sloppy or forced passes.

Even if you get the puck from one Red Wing, another will get it back.
Close puck support enables those quick dishes, but even more importantly it recovers control after mistakes. They've managed to turn botched attempts at offense into creative-looking plays that almost seem deliberate. Whatever the intention is, the result is overwhelming. If one player loses the puck, his teammate is right there to make sure the drive doesn't die, which can spell trouble for a defender who's accustomed to dismantling an attack with one poke check (coughHalGillcough).

The Red Wings have many tricks, and they're not afraid to use every last one of them.
Players are encouraged to, within the system, use their strengths to create chances. If Datsyuk has space, he'll twirl around you. If Franzen doesn't, he'll go through you. If both of them are stopped, Holmstrom will continue to slash your goaltender long after the whistle has blown out of the possibility that the play is a zombie and will come back to life, or because he is an asshole. They utilize their best option on the ice, no matter what it is, which forces teams to defend them by reacting, not anticipating. There's no cheating when defending against the Red Wings. And even if you do gain control of the puck, the Red Wings know where you're going with it, and they will get it from you.

I hate to praise them so irrationally, but to watch a team as confident, enthusiastic, and freakishly talented as Pittsburgh be controlled and intimidated like they were in Detroit is frustrating. Game three played out a lot like I imagined the rest of the series would. Part of me is encouraged enough to think it will turn around now. Penguins players have been saying the right things in interviews (like get the puck back to the de more) and have adjusted their forecheck a bit to be more effective. The rational part of me, however, expects the Red Wings to own the next game, seeing as they only lost the last one because they didn't play like the Red Wings (ie the Brad Stuart turnover). You never know- maybe the Penguins were really just good enough to throw Detroit off their game, and I say it's better to believe that than to believe Ryan Malone's nose is yellow and scabs are red and helmet is black for nothing. Go Pens!

Second Round 2008

Detroit over Colorado (6 games)
The Avs play the kind of game Detroit can completely dominate. Their defense has played well and Theodore gives them a clear edge in goaltending, but their disorganized offense leaves them vulnerable to the Red Wings' transition game. Detroit picks apart and quickly turns back weak attacks, which have become the Avs trademark. It's not impossible for them to win the series, but they would have to play with more strength, creativity, intelligence, consistency, effort, and edge than they have all season. All the Red Wings have to do is score on Theodore, though Nashville proved last round that goaltending can go a long way. It's because of Theodore that the Avs have any shot at all, as even with massive improvements they will still likely be the lesser team. Detroit always seems to play to their potential; the series depends entirely on if the Avs do.

San Jose over Dallas (7 games)
It's all up to San Jose's forwards. Despite overall talent, the strength of both teams lies in their defense. If either team really breaks out offensively, it'll be devastating. Neither goaltender had a very good first round, but Turco was a bit worse. Because Nabokov is (more) likely to raise his game and the Sharks give up far fewer powerplays than the Ducks, Dallas' offense will struggle more in this round than the first. Therefore, if San Jose breaks out (which they can against Turco and with Boucher injured), they also win. It's not at all out of the question that Dallas will win (they're just full of surprises), but it's more likely that they'll crack first.

Montreal over Philadelphia (7 games)
While goaltending is the biggest key with two open teams like this, and Price will likely outduel Biron in most games, the series also depends on whether the Flyers can use their physicality to overwhelm the Habs. This will not only take away space from Montreal's forwards, but also put pressure on their sketchy de (and take pressure off of the Flyers'). If their effort is inconsistent or they end up in the box too much- two very possible outcomes- they won't win.
One note on the Habs- they beat Boston so badly in Game 7 for the exact reasons they should have beaten them that badly in the series. In addition to being genuinely outplayed in the first half of the game, their defense was incredibly shaky in their own zone and their forwards fairly inconsistent. But, like they have been all year, the Habs' weaknesses were cancelled out by their strengths. Their lethally opportunistic forwards seemed to capitalize on every mistake we made (mostly by Chara), while Price made sure that we couldn't do the same. By the third period the Bruins looked completely broken and hopeless. The Habs don't play flawless hockey- they can just play flawed hockey better than other teams. If they're really on their game, the Flyers' effort level is inconsequential. They'll win.

Pittsburgh over NY Rangers (6 games)
The Rangers' lineup looked like a recipe for a turnaround- if they got Lundqvist and the forwards playing as well as their incredibly solid defense, they'd be a force. But as soundly as they beat the Devils, they still haven't made the leap. Lundvist was good, and could give them the advantage in goaltending, but it seems that their offensive "breakout" was helped a lot by Brodeur. Additionally, their defense was less than solid against a very bad New Jersey offense. It's like they tried to morph into the Penguins, but they're not good enough to play like Pittsburgh does. They need to be firing on all three cylinders to compete with the Penguins' two. Even if they do, it still might not be enough. It would take elevated play from all skaters, robbery from Lundqvist, and at least a minor breakdown from the Penguins for New York to win this.


It's becoming customary for me to put these up after the first day, but I did have both of tonight's series done before the teams played (as is evident by the comments about Theodore). His strange game aside, the Avs-Red Wings game went as well as I could have hoped, especially given how Colorado played in the first period. They looked terrified. The effort was mostly there, but without confidence it was unfocused and they were just lost. Pierre McGuire insightfully pointed out (many, many times) that Detroit's speed was too much for the Avs, but that was really only the case with Datsyuk. It wasn't that the Red Wings were getting places faster- it was that they were already halfway there by the time the Avs realized where they were going. As they spent the first period simply reacting to the Red Wings, it's no wonder the Avs had trouble stopping them. Detroit's intelligence was too much for them. It was only after Liles' goal (wonderful play all-around) that they gained the confidence to control the puck in the offensive zone and aggressively step up on the Wings' attack. For the second half of the game, they stayed with Detroit, and if not for a partial relapse into weak puck support and a late recovery from Osgood, they could have come back to win. They need to play like that for the rest of the series (especially Tyler Arnason, who inexplicably decided not to suck) and they've got a shot.

Shout out to Medford: I don't hate the Bruins anymore. It's a miracle...but there's always next year.

Quick Notes and Thoughts

Phil Kessel is sitting again. I have no complaints about the Bruins' play last game- they did everything they could, and it just wasn't enough against Price. But doesn't that mean we need something else? We need offense, and Phil can bring that. If it's an issue of effort, I can't imagine that watching a series like this from the sidelines is going to make him complacent and lackadaisical. I respect Claude Julien for sticking to his decision, and maybe he sees that Phil isn't ready attitude-wise to come back, but if the Bruins lose tonight because they can't score that decision of his could look pretty bad.
[Edit: Phil is a "possibility", according to an update from my "source". Additionally, he's skating warmups, which might be a pretty good indicator itself.]

That being said, these are the five biggest keys of the game:

• Tim Thomas vs. Carey Price. The obvious one- it's whoever cracks first (or worst).
  
• Officiating. Special teams have had less of an impact than most people thought, but the calls still make a difference. Since the first brutal couple of games in Montreal, it's improved, but poor calls have the ability to sap a team of its momentum.
  
• The reliability of the Bruins' defense. Another improved facet of the team since the start, the defensemen have to play smart. The Habs will be pumped up enough by their crowd to convert any mistake into an opportunity, and goals are precious.
  
• The first period. The first period has been low-scoring for the Bruins all series, despite strong play in later games, but if they can do some actual damage early it'll go a long way to improving their confidence and taking the Montreal crowd out of it a (little) bit.
• The "Milan Lucic Effect". After Kovalev took exception to his hit, Milan responded by mockingly wiping his cheek with one glove and taunting, "Boo hoo." Best moment of the series. The kid has been so relentless, Josh Gorges admitted in between periods that their defensive strategy was to let him go into the corner and get the puck first, as the hits were taking them out of the play and wearing them down. It isn't empty, mindless goonery, either- not only does he create chances and play sound defense, but it's clear his heart is 100% invested in the game. His insane efforts have been contagious, spawning even players such as Savvy to start finishing their checks. The Bruins last game refused to let down, and they have to carry the Milan Lucic Effect into this one.
  

It's going to take a miracle to win this series; that miracle will have to happen tonight. Go B's!

The Avs keys are covered a bit in the last post, but just for good measure, go Avs!

Five Reasons the Avs Scored Five Goals

1) The Defense
I never would have thought sitting Jeff Finger would help a team whose biggest problem was heart and team play, but the Colorado defensemen had an outstanding game. From the inconspicuous dependability of Scott Hannan and Kurt Sauer to the fierceness of Adam Foote and (oddly) J-M Liles, the defensemen both fueled and supported the offense.
Jordan Leopold, for instance, showed a poise, creativity, and intelligence that I hadn't seen from him before. He made effortless-looking plays all night that kept the ice tilted in the direction of the Wild net. It's even harder to find a fault in Ruslan Salei's play. A defensive wall and offensive force, he led the team with 25 minutes of ice time- and I wish it could have been more. He was the best player on the ice.

2) The Lines
At first both exciting and inexplicable, the new line combinations last night seemed to address a stagnant Avalanche offense that lacked any chemistry or coordination. While some players just didn't suck as noticeably, others immediately found themselves more effective- and everyone looked a bit more comfortable.
How putting Wojtek Wolski on the checking line causes him to score is beyond me, but he had a game for himself. It wasn't flawless, but he played with an almost strange sort of confidence and seemed even more devoted to his defensive responsibilities than usual.
Ryan Smyth, the Avs best forward this series, found his superhuman grinding powers actually lead to a goal by a very gracious (and deserving) Milan Hejduk. And, in a bizarre and blissful twist on Smytty's previous line, the peskiness of Cody McLeod and energy of David Jones reacted in such a way that almost completely neutralized the suckiness of Tyler Arnason.

3) The Wild
Minnesota is as upset with their play as Colorado is pleased. The defense were caught back on their heels, their normally suffocating system collapsing under pressure. The defense wasn't helped much by their forwards, who couldn't manage to keep the puck in the offensive zone for very long. Over the course of the night, there were more than twice as many faceoffs in Minnesota's end than the Avs', due in large part to the skewed shot count. Clearly the frustration got to the Wild, as they took so many penalties that a fairly terrible Colorado powerplay still converted twice. By the midway point of the game, it seemed like the Wild players had forgotten that the point of hockey was even to score goals.
While all of those problems were due in large part to strong play by the Avs, Backstrom's weak game was all on him. Letting in so many early goals, some of which he could have stopped when he's on, took the life out of his team.

4) The Attack
All the Wild had to do the game before this to kill the Avs' offensive attempts was clog up the middle of the ice. The forwards were too slow and weak on the puck to drive to the net, and their sloppily forced passes to the middle of the ice were read and stopped easily. Minnesota expected it all the way, and rightly so- even with the slot packed with Wild players and the points open, the Avs kept at it.
Last night was a shocking turnaround. Aiming to capitalize while they had all their energy, the Avs lacked any of the tentativeness they had shown before and came out flying. Our forwards kept their feet moving and drove through tough areas, led by again Smytty, the only player to consistently do this all series, and Jones, who has also played hard so far. Not only did all four lines play strong hockey, but the defensemen also contributed to the rush. Andrew Brunette's goal (a perfect example of the reformed attack) was entirely the making of Ruslan Salei, and J-M was all over the offensive zone (unfortunately, so was his shot). Even Scott Hannan was leading the charge early on. They were relentless, and it forced the Wild to play terribly.

5) The Fire
In the first few minutes of the game Jose Theodore received a face full of snow, and J-M Liles immediately stepped in to tell the Wild player off. As the CBC announcers discussed what sort of message Minnesota was sending Theodore, a close-up of the play showed that J-M's message wasn't too hard to make out: "Fuck you, man."
When your 5-10 defenseman is looking to get into it right from the start of the game, you know you're set. For the first three games, plays like Sean Hill's psychotic tackle of Peter Forsberg went unchallenged, something that seemed to demoralize Foppa a bit as time went on. The players looked detached and disinterested.
Evidence that things changed (or that every person on the team simultaneously took up meth) was everywhere last night. In addition to the Jones-exacerbated spectacle that was Cody McLeod, Adam Foote infuriated Brent Burns by telling him off for his work on Forsberg. Foote also responded with ferocious enthusiasm to a challenge from Derek Boogaard before Ian Laperriere stepped in to (try to) pull Boogaard off. Lappy later followed up on Stephane Veilleux for his dangerous hit on Stastny and general douchiness.
All over the ice players were pushing back for themselves and their teammates, from the Liles and Wolski types (attempted to start something late with Hill) right up to the McLeods and Lappys. It explains why McLeod was put on the third line- to light that fire. It may seem irrelevant to scoring, but hockey can't be played like a business. You need to be a real team to win in the playoffs, and nothing makes someone a teammate faster than when they stick up for you.


I don't expect them to score five goals every game. Clearly everything just fell into place last night. However, I don't remember the last time I saw the Avs play so cohesively as a team, and I believe it's due to a change in attitude more than any change in tactics or lines. The Avs can win Game 5 with Sakic centering McLeod and Laperriere (joking, Q), but if they don't respond to the inevitable Minnesota brutality, they're through. The key to the rest of this series- and any success the Avs hope to have this postseason- is whether Colorado can keep it on now that they've turned it on. Was that a random burst, or will the Avs finally be the dangerous team we all know they should be? Strangely enough, we'll probably have to ask Cody McLeod.