I've just been told that squirrels are nesting in our New Hampshire house. I feel the same way about those squirrels that I do about the Vancouver/Dallas series. They have to leave now. And Vancouver has to win, because if Dallas does then the Sharks have to face the Ducks. That would just be cruel. But whatever- I'm done waiting for the Western Conference to be ready. I'll just preview the Eastern Conference matchups for now.
-Buffalo (1) vs. NY Rangers (6)
I laughed when people started to call the Rangers a legitimate threat in the playoffs, but this series isn't looking how I thought it would. Buffalo has the better offense and, despite Jagr/Nylander/Shanahan, the better forwards overall, but the Rangers have the better defense (ranked 9th to Buffalo's 13th). It's not a big enough advantage to offset the disparity in goals scored, but Lundqvist might be. He posted a .939 SV% and 1.50 GAA against Atlanta, while Miller had a decent .918 SV% and 2.21 GAA against the Islanders. Both were improvements over their regular season numbers; Lundqvist more than Miller. When it comes to special teams, the Rangers own both categories. Buffalo had mediocre PP/PK numbers during the regular season, and while their penalty kill improved against the Islanders (who have a decent powerplay), their own powerplay got even worse. The Rangers, on the other hand, improved on their good regular season special teams. Part of this can be attributed to the awful special teams of the Thrashers, but part of it is the Rangers on a roll. Even if they're scoring and defending way above what they usually do, it still counts for something. If either team has momentum it's the Rangers.
Who Should Win: The Rangers. It's a pretty dumb choice, but it's not based entirely on the momentum thing (that would be really dumb). The Rangers have good enough regular season numbers to make an upset possible, and have been insane in the playoffs and the end of the season. Going on the assumption that they're going to play above their regular season numbers (though definitely not as far above as they did against Atlanta), that Buffalo isn't playing very far above their regular season numbers, and that Lundqvist will outduel Ryan Miller, the Rangers have a chance.
Who I Want to Win: Anyone but Buffalo.
-New Jersey (2) vs. Ottawa (4)
It's not defense vs. offense for New Jersey this round. Ottawa may have the second-best offense in the NHL, but they also have the 10th-ranked defense. That defense held up well against the good offense of Pittsburgh, averaging 22 shots against/game. This allowed Ray Emery, with a .909 SV%, to have a 2.01 GAA. Emery will be outplayed by Martin Brodeur, but not badly enough to lose the series. In the first round New Jersey faltered on defense, but found ways to score more than they had during the regular season. Ottawa, on the other hand, scored at about their regular season rate, but were better on defense than they had been. Both teams saw no change, relative to other teams, in their penalty kill, but both improved on the powerplay.
Who Should Win: Ottawa. They adjusted well to Pittsburgh, improving their defense while maintaining their scoring. New Jersey caved a bit to the strong offense of the Lightning, while taking advantage of their weaknesses enough to win. They have no weakness to exploit in this series, and if Ottawa can stifle the strength of their opponent like they did in the first round, they'll win just as neatly.
Who I Want to Win: New Jersey. Gionta hasn't grown. I also had lunch with a thoroughly embittered Thrashers fan, and through a crazed series of grumbles he convinced me to kind of not like Dany Heatley.
The lunch was actually before the Sox game yesterday. I got the tickets for my birthday and took Liz. They were decent seats- close enough to see the action well, but not quite close enough to do anything about Kevin Youkilis' facial hair. The four straight homeruns, the strangely amicable mood of the crowd, Daisuke pelting A-Rod and Jeter, and the first home sweep in 17 years made it a great game, but a couple of things made it especially memorable. First off, it was the first time that I ever paid attention to players' entrance music, and I have to say that I've been missing out. Youk played a Justin Timberlake song, Mike Lowell played "Ironman", Papi played "This Is Why I'm Hot", and Dustin Pedroia played a strange, smooth hip-hop beat, accented by chimes, that Liz nicknamed the "Get Naked for Dustin" music. This was also the first time I've ever seen Papelbon pitch in person. The way the crowd reacted when they realized he was coming in made his cheesy entrance song of "Wild Thing" seem almost fitting, and watching him stare down the batters literally gave me chills.
On another completely unrelated note- saw "Children of Men" and didn't like it. It tried to be gritty and emotional, but was too cliched and I just didn't buy it. I also saw "Hot Fuzz" and liked it a lot, but "Shaun of the Dead" was better. And if this movie-watching spree doesn't cool down, I'm going to burn out before the Sharks even make it to the Finals.
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4 comments:
1) We at FAUXRUMORS posted our prediction on the East this morning as well: http://newfaux.blogspot.com/2007/04/second-round-predictions-east.html#links
2) We were 7 of 8 predicting the open round(4 of 4 in the East. We have the Sabres winning easily in 5, and the Senators winning a bruising 7 game series over the Devils
3) The Rangers win over the Thrashers was almost a first round bye. Atlanta didn't even show up. Buffalo coasted, but still won only in 5 games. They have 4 dangerous lines that the slow Ranger defense will have a tough time corralling
Beware of newfaux. He is not as he seems. He routinely changes posts to make it look like he called things he didn't. He is full of crap and cannot be trusted.
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