Before I even look at the standings, I have to ask how the hell the Oilers won- did the one thing I needed them to do to partially redeem themselves- and the Avs lost. It's not worth getting flustered over, but Jesus Christ. Anyway here's the first round of the playoffs as I understand it:
Western Conference
-Detroit (1) vs. Calgary (8)
Season series: 2-2 each
All signs point to a Detroit win in this series. While they have identical GF this season, the Red Wings have an edge in GA (ranked 4th to Calgary's 10th). For Detroit, this comes from a solid defensive team, not just goaltending. Calgary averages 31 shots against per game; Detroit averages 25. For the Flames to win this series, they'll have to be rougher (both teams have nearly identical penalties drawn/taken), work harder, and take advantage of any and all mistakes or injuries that have happened or will happen. They also have to take all of their home games, because it is a bitch to get a win at the Joe.
Who Should Win: Detroit. There's that little voice in the back of my head telling me I'm an idiot for picking the Red Wings to win a playoff series, but I can't not pick them this time.
Who I Want to Win: Calgary. Basically it's the lesser of two evils. I'm always down for Canadians winning, and Detroit is one team that I absolutely refuse to cheer for under any circumstances. The other two are Vancouver and Buffalo. If any of them meet one another in a series I'm sticking my fingers in my ears and singing "lalalala" repeatedly until it's over.
-Anaheim (2) vs. Minnesota (7)
Season series: 2-1-1 Anaheim
Minnesota's strategy this year seems to be a suffocating defensive game+Gaborik/Demitra. The Ducks, however, have scary-consistent numbers. They have the 2nd-ranked powerplay and the 4th-ranked kill. They're ranked 4th at home and 5th on the road. They're 7th in GF and 7th in GA. Minnesota, on the other hand, is 2nd at home and 17th on the road, 1st in GA and 19th in GF (though they have good special teams). When Gaborik/Demitra are both healthy and clicking, they've got a little more offense going for them, but overall they're a mostly one-dimensional team. The one thing they have is that they always seem to win games when it feels like they lost. I can't count the number of times that the Avs or someone were playing the Wild, and we were dominating the game, and I'd look up at the score and realize that we were losing. Maybe they can win a series in which it feels like they lost?
Who Should Win: Anaheim. They've got experienced veterans, promising young guys, scoring, defense, they're physical, they're quick...I'd be shocked if they lost. Minnesota's good, but Anaheim might be the best team in the playoffs.
Who I Want to Win: Minnesota. I kind of like them, and despite the insane comments that were made about his wife, I still hate Pronger.
-Vancouver (3) vs. Dallas (6)
Season series: 2-1-1 each
I'll be surprised if this series doesn't suck. Two defense-first teams that no one really likes? Woohoo! But honestly, it should be extremely low-scoring with the 21st-ranked (Vancouver) and 22nd-ranked (Dallas) offenses going at it. The difference is that Dallas is a better defensive team overall, allowing 25 shots per game to Vancouver's 29, while Vancouver has Roberto Luongo.
Who Should Win: Vancouver. Everyone knows a good goalie is worth way more than a good defense in the playoffs. If the Sedins do anything in the scoring department, Vancouver should win. Plus they kick ass in OT with a 12-3 record (not including the shootout), and Dallas is probably the weakest Western Conference team.
Who I Want to Win: Dallas. Another lesser-of-two-evils scenario, and like I said before I just can't bring myself to root for Vancouver, even if it means rooting for Dallas. It doesn't matter. I won't be watching this series anyway.
-Nashville (4) vs. San Jose (5)
Season series: 2-1-1 Nashville
By far the Western matchup I'm looking forward to most. Despite their middle-ranking in the West, they're the 3rd and 5th-ranked teams in the league and could have easily been higher in the standings. Nashville is, record-wise, better than both Anaheim and Vancouver, meaning San Jose might have been better off dropping a few spots. Even still, I think the Sharks have the ability to be even better than they were during the regular season. Both teams are solid in both ends of the ice (Nashville is 4th in GF, 8th in GA; San Jose is 6th in GF and 6th in GA) and have two good goaltenders each. Scoring won't be a problem for either team, though- Nashville oozes offense, while San Jose will have two awesome lines centered by Thornton and Marleau. The Sharks' powerplay is deadly, but will be facing the 3rd-ranked kill of the Predators. One disparity is that Nashville gets 28 shots/game, but lets up 31, while San Jose is more balanced at 29 for/26 against, but that doesn't mean too much, except that San Jose is a little better defensively.
Who Should Win: San Jose. It's close, but I like them in the playoffs this season. This series is awful- either team has a shot at the Stanley Cup this year, and that one of them has to be knocked out in the first round when some pretty weak Eastern teams will go on is painful.
Who I Want to Win: San Jose. I like both teams, and the Paul Kariya action figure staring at me from my desk (it was a gift) is making me feel a little guilty, but the Sharks might be my favorite team this postseason. It's not just because of Joe- I actually like Patrick Marleau more than him. Also, Scott Hannan reminds me of Dominic Monaghan, and I tend to automatically like people if they look familiar.
Eastern Conference
-Buffalo (1) vs. NY Islanders (8)
Season series: 3-1 Buffalo
The best offense in the NHL against a potentially DiPietro-less Islanders? Oh no. The Islanders are not good enough defensively (33 shots against/game) to make up for a second-string goaltender, and especially not against Buffalo. With Smytty (God bless his soul) as their best forward, they also have no shot in hell of outscoring the Sabres. In fact, there is nothing at all remarkable about the Islanders, statistic-wise, that would make me think they have a chance in this series.
Who Should Win: Buffalo. The Sabres have the best road record in the NHL, meaning this could be over quickly.
Who I Want to Win: The Islanders. Despite the obvious Smytty factor, which is the only real reason I want to see the Islanders do well, I just really, really hate the Sabres. In fact, my motto for this year's playoffs is "Anyone But Buffalo", which is a lot catchier and more appropriate than my original motto, "I Will Make Sweet Sweet Love to the First Person to Give Daniel Briere a Concussion". Though the offer still stands.
-New Jersey (2) vs. Tampa Bay (7)
Season series: 2-1-1 Tampa Bay
It's defense versus offense, it's St. Louis and Lecavalier versus Brodeur, it's...not going to work for Tampa Bay. Like I said before, goaltending is huge in the playoffs, and Tampa Bay doesn't have any. They average a very respectable 27 shots against per game, yet they're 24th in the league in GA and have the 28th-ranked PK. Yeah, New Jersey themselves are 27th in GF, but at least they have a few forwards that can score for them if they need it. The Lightning have just terrible defensive numbers- too terrible to win any series.
Who Should Win: New Jersey. No way Tampa Bay is beating them- they're the worst team in the playoffs.
Who I Want to Win: New Jersey. I always hated them until Brian Gionta came into my life. Now I might even say I like them a bit. Should Gionta leave the Devils, that would change, but for now I don't mind them too much.
-Atlanta (3) vs. NY Rangers (6)
Season series: 3-1 Atlanta (with 2 OT wins)
Series like this make it even harder for me that the Avs missed the playoffs. Both teams have unbelievably mediocre numbers, particularly Atlanta. They're 14th at home, 14th on the road, 14th in GF, and 15th in GA. The only thing notable about them is that their powerplay (19th) and penalty kill (26th) are both pretty bad. The one thing they have going for them is a promising young goalie, which tend to miraculously become Conn Smythe-winners, in Kari Lehtonen. The Rangers, though, counter with Henrik Lundqvist, who is hot right now. It'll be him against a potent Atlanta offense.
Who Should Win: The Rangers. I don't really know why. Neither team is particularly scary, but the Rangers have slightly less mediocre numbers, and Lundqvist.
Who I Want to Win: The Rangers. I don't like either team, but I kind of like Petr Prucha. That he's the deciding factor shows how little I care about this series.
-Ottawa (4) vs. Pittsburgh (5)
Season series: 3-1 Pittsburgh (with 2 OT wins)
Like the Western Conference 4-vs-5 series, I'm excited for this one, but then again who isn't excited to see the Penguins this postseason? Both teams are great offensively and mediocre defensively, with the Senators having a slight edge in both areas. Pittsburgh has a strong powerplay; Ottawa's better on the kill. The Sens are nearly as good on the road as they are at home, but the Pens are better at home than them. It should be a thrilling and close series.
Who Should Win: Pittsburgh. They're all young and excited. You can say they're inexperienced, but does anyone really want the kind of postseason experience that the Sens have? Moreover, I trust Crosby to up his game, and if he does then the Pens win for sure.
[Edit: After spending way too much time looking at more numbers, I can't believe I picked Pittsburgh here. Ottawa was top-five in every way I ranked teams. Even still, I'm sticking with the Pens. If a team is going to pull an upset this season, it's going to be them.]
Who I Want to Win: Pittsburgh. I like Crosby, I like Malkin ("Shrek on ice" according to Paula), and I'm a Staal family fan. Plus, anyone that has a soul is rooting for the Penguins, and (surprisingly enough) I haven't sold mine off yet.
As you can tell, I'm excited for the playoffs. It's the only time of year that I can root for random teams nearly as enthusiastically as I root for my own. Like most Bruins fans I've talked to, I hope San Jose can win it all. And like most people who put a large, triple cappucinno-fueled amount of energy into making predictions, I hope I'm right.
*Disclaimer: I'm always wrong.
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11 comments:
The Pens/Sens series is going to be sick to watch. This is a nice little preview though, I think you're pretty spot on. There aren't a lot of favorites though, except for your hated Buffalo. Don't worry though, President's trophy winners rarely win the cup. Hopefully I haven't jinxed anything there.
Who I Want to Win: Calgary.
Yeah, you're going to do really well in Edmonton. Traitor.
Quiet, you. I gave good reasons for that. I was an Avs fan first- if I root for a Detroit Red Wings team that has Todd Bertuzzi, I'll be smote down for sure. Just pretend it says "Who I Want to Lose Less: Calgary".
1) We don't have the same dislike for the Sabres as you do, but feel that they will be the team to beat this year.
2) Nice analysis though
I guess I have no soul cause I do not like the Pens and never will. Maybe it's whiny Sid the kid. He just gets on my nerves plus their goalie is not going to win a playoff series yet. He's not had a great year. He tanks in the playoffs!
But entertaining predictions! And nice to know you're always wrong! :)
fauxrumours - is that the royal we?
why the hate for les sabres?
Scarlett, if I may, I don't think that's a very fair assessment of Fleury. It is his first full season in the NHL and he has performed admirably. Down the stretch, he pulled out a fair few wins for the Pens. He has a certain air about him; he's a netminder who has a flair for the dramatic, and can inspire the skaters in front of him.
Just my $0.02 :)
1) Black Dog- Not royal, just a collective 'we'.
2) We maintain that the Sabres are the team to beat this spring. They will be helped by their first round 'bye'.
I just don't know about the Sabres. I have my doubts about them as favorites, even necessarily in the East (I was real close to putting Ottawa above them). I'm sure some of that has to do with the hate, which is due to a few clashes with the B's, but mostly Daniel Briere.
I'm curious to see how Fleury does. I haven't seen him play much but from what I hear he's got great potential. People seem to either think he'll shine or flop this year; for the sake of being positive I'm betting on the former.
Two hours! I can't believe I'm this excited for random teams.
RE: Fleury
He started off badly but the skaters in front of him didn't reall help matters. Thought he pulled off several excellent saves when his nerves settled after the opening exchanges. That's the thing I like about Fleury is that he won't stay down for long. He can get his confidence back up quickly and he did keep the Pens in the game for as long as he could. Unfortunately, the team in front of him didn't stick to their end of the deal. They just allowed themselves to be pushed around. I think Murray made a poor move in getting his players to cheap shot the Pens as it negated the psychological advantage they had built through their previously clean physical dominance. It lit a fire under Pittsburgh and I expect them to come up much stronger along the wall and around the nets in the next game. That's where this series will be won and lost, IMO.
Agree completely. Fleury made some awesome saves and what goals I saw (which wasn't all of them) didn't appear to be his fault. This next game is absolutely crucial to the Pens and I'm almost positive that they'll do better.
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